Well, there's no getting around some of the negative news about Nicaragua's political situation lately. Here's a sample:
Bloomberg1
Bloomberg2
GoogleNews
No beating around the bush from us: It doesn't look great. But here's another perspective (and, yes, we're biased but we don't think that takes anything away from our view): this could represent an investment window of opportunity...if you, as an investor, can stomach the elevated political risk.
The fact is, Nicaragua was being heralded widely -- globally -- as the “next Costa Rica” and the “next Panama” in the world press before Daniel Ortega's presidential victory earlier this year. It's still getting praised in tourism articles across the U.S. and across the world.
Our hope is that as real estate prices continue to escalate in both Costa Rica and Panama, as baby boomers continue to seek warmer, cheaper, "old world" locales outside North America and Western Europe and as Ortega approaches the end of his five-year presidential term, that'll happen again.
Ortega 2.0 can't be Ortega 1.0. He was elected as a minority president to begin with. He has even less support now then he did after the election (less than 38%). He faces a hostile legislature that has opposed him on a number of significant issues. Nicaragua is more dependent financially than it has ever been on the U.S. and the European Union. It will never receive as much support from countries such as Venezuela as it does from the U.S. and the European Union in both government aid and private investment -- and most Nicaraguans know this. And the proximity and success of Costa Rica, Panama, Chile and Uruguay are -- we hope -- powerful examples to Nicaraguans in and outside the government of the right way to boost growth, boost job creation and reduce poverty.
It is our view (and yes, hope) that investor apprehension created by the current situation has opened a window of opportunity for smart, forward-looking investors with a five- to ten-year time horizon to get in “before the herd” -- before the end of Ortega's term and before what we anticipate will be the resumption of the real estate investment boom that preceded Ortega's presidential election victory. Because at the end of the day, regardless of her politics, Nicaragua remains a beautiful and a nice place to live and life in the "First World" isn't getting any less stressful, costly or abrasive...and, frankly, dangerous.
We've come across estimates from global real estate analyses earlier this year that Nicaragua as a whole may be as much as 68% undervalued, given its level of economic freedom and its business climate (as measured by the Wall Street Journal Index of Economic Freedom). In other words, adjusting statistically for what Nicaragua offers investors compared to other countries – as far as property rights, tax burden, transparency, government spending (as a share of the economy), inflation, trade, labor, financial and business regulation policy -- Nicaragua is only 32% of the average cost of countries offering similar business climate characteristics.
This isn't to take anything away from what skeptics are saying. Don't get us wrong. We're only providing broader long-term perspective.
We only wish to raise the possibility that Nicaragua now may represent an investment opportunity similar to that of Mexico in 1994, Argentina in 2001 and Eastern Europe in the early 1990's represented -- that Nicaragua itself represented in the early 1990's -- during and after political and financial crises in those regions. Those crises eventually gave way to fantastic real estate booms. The situation now may be similar -- not in degree (the situation now isn't as grave, so the rebound would not be as big), but in direction and character. The political risk in Nicaragua now may be far less than it was back in the early 1980's.
Wishful thinking on our part? Maybe. We have no idea what will come next. We're just supplying some food for thought.
For all the political heartburn, it's still a beautiful country with a beautiful people -- a great place to live with enormous untapped investment potential. For a brief summary of that potential, click the following link for our Why Nicaragua page. It's our expectation -- and yes, hope -- that this potential will be realized.
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